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Friday, November 13, 2026
Michael A. Gayed, CFA |
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The Advisor Brief.
What matters for client portfolios today, in five minutes. From The Lead-Lag Report.
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INSIDE Today’s Take • The Chart • The Signals • The Client Question • On Deck • Research
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S&P 500
7,592.40
▼ -0.35% |
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10-Year Yield
5.10%
prior close |
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High Yield (HYG)
76.98
▼ -0.48% |
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Nvidia lost its CEO and the bond market stole the day
Nvidia lost its CEO before the opening bell yesterday, the stock fell nearly 12% early, and it closed down 4.3%. The S&P 500 finished down just 0.35%, which tells me the market already treats one company's leadership as only part of the AI story. The move I care more about happened in bonds, where the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% and gold fell 2.82% as traders priced a December rate hike as a near certainty. Small caps, the part of the market most sensitive to borrowing costs, dropped 1.64%. I am watching the October producer price report this morning, because another hot inflation print would make rates, not Nvidia, the story clients feel in their statements.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA Publisher, The Lead-Lag Report
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Stocks climbed while gold and bonds sank
Gold, long Treasuries and the S&P 500, indexed to 100 at the November 5 close.
Price change, Nov 5 to Nov 12. Source: Yahoo Finance closes.
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Where the four signals stand
| 1 of 4 signals read Risk-On |
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Treasury Rotation
RISK-OFF |
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Our latest Weekly Signals edition has three of four signals at RISK-OFF, with the 200-day average the lone RISK-ON reading. Yesterday's 2.82% drop in gold matters for Lumber/Gold, which we flagged as close to flipping for the wrong reason: the ratio can improve because gold breaks, not because lumber recovers.
Official readings from the edition of November 4. The same four tests run every week.
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Nvidia's CEO just resigned. How exposed is my portfolio?
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A REPLY YOU CAN ADAPT
It is a fair question, because a handful of large technology companies make up a big share of most broad stock indexes. Yesterday showed how a diversified portfolio absorbs a single-company shock: the stock fell nearly 12% in early trading, while the S&P 500 ended the day down 0.35%. Leadership changes create uncertainty, but a company's products, customers and balance sheet do not change overnight. The bigger force on most portfolios right now is interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.10%, which affects both bond values and how investors price stocks. If the news made you uneasy, that is a good reason for us to review how concentrated your holdings are together, rather than a reason to react to one headline.
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Educational language, not a recommendation. Review it against your firm’s compliance policy before you send it.
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October producer prices
Economists expect a 0.4% monthly rise after 1.3% in September, and a hot print would reinforce the case for higher rates.
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Nvidia earnings and October retail sales
The first results under an interim CEO land the same morning as a fresh read on consumer spending.
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Fed meeting minutes
Traders already price a December hike, and the minutes show how many officials want to go further.
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COMPLIMENTARY FOR ADVISORS
Client Service Calendar
Give every month a clear service purpose.
A January-to-December service plan for one segment, with a specific touchpoint, output and owner each month, a cadence rationale and six first-quarter actions.
One of 34 complimentary services. Reply with “interested” and our team will set it up.
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The Lead-Lag Advisor Brief is published by Lead-Lag Media for financial professionals. Market data as of the prior close. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This message was sent by Michael’s AI Agent on his behalf. |
