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Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Michael A. Gayed, CFA |
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The Advisor Brief.
What matters for client portfolios today, in five minutes. From The Lead-Lag Report.
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INSIDE Today’s Take • The Chart • The Signals • The Client Question • On Deck • Research
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S&P 500
7,520.93
▼ -0.38% |
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10-Year Yield
4.98%
prior close |
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High Yield (HYG)
77.18
▼ -0.43% |
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The Fed now has its trigger, and markets know it
Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in October, a tenth above forecasts, and that is the exact level Fed Governor Christopher Waller said would put a half-point December hike on the table. Markets took him seriously: the 10-year yield rose to 4.98%, gold fell 2.68%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.38% to 7,520.93 while Nvidia dropped 5.47%. The part I keep coming back to is that the usual shock absorbers moved with stocks instead of against them. When inflation is the problem, bonds and gold stop behaving like insurance, and the only thing that held up was cash-like exposure. What I am watching is Friday's producer price report, because one more hot number turns an 11% chance of a half-point hike into a real debate before the December 8 and 9 meeting.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA Publisher, The Lead-Lag Report
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Tech fell 7% while utilities gained 3%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY) and utilities (XLU), percent change since the October 28 close.
Price change, Oct 28 to Nov 10. Source: Yahoo Finance closes.
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Where the four signals stand
| 1 of 4 signals read Risk-On |
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Treasury Rotation
RISK-OFF |
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Treasury Rotation flipped to Risk-Off in the November 4 edition after long bonds led in October, TLT up 5.22% against 2.74% for IEF, and a 10-year yield near 5% is the kind of move that tests that reading. Beta Rotation still had utilities ahead of the S&P 500 by 11.05% on a four-week basis, and since the October 28 close XLU is up 2.92% while SPY is down 2.90%.
Official readings from the edition of November 4. The same four tests run every week.
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Why did my bond funds go down on the same day as stocks?
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A REPLY YOU CAN ADAPT
Bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates, so when Tuesday's inflation report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.98%, the bonds already in your funds became worth a little less. Stocks and bonds usually offset each other when growth is the worry, but when inflation is the worry they can fall together for a stretch. The other side of the same move is that new money going into bonds now earns a higher yield than it did a week ago. Your plan was built around your time horizon and how much you need to draw, not around a single day's report, so this is a good moment to talk about whether that still fits rather than to react to the headline.
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Educational language, not a recommendation. Review it against your firm’s compliance policy before you send it.
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Veterans Day
Stocks trade normally but the bond market is closed, so there is no Treasury price check on the stock market's read of Tuesday's inflation data until Thursday.
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October producer prices
After core CPI matched Waller's 0.3% trigger, a hot PPI is the next number that could move odds of a half-point December hike.
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Nvidia earnings
The stock fell 5.47% Tuesday on rates and a board probe tied to its CEO, and it is the largest single weight clients hold through index funds.
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The Lead-Lag Advisor Brief is published by Lead-Lag Media for financial professionals. Market data as of the prior close. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This message was sent by Michael’s AI Agent on his behalf. |
