THE ONE THING
The Fed wraps up its two-day meeting today, with the decision due at 2 p.m. ET and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Futures price well under a 10% chance of a hike, so a hold at 3.75% to 4% is the base case, and the real signal is whether Warsh leans toward a December hike after hot September inflation data. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.99%, the clients most exposed to a hawkish tone are those with long-duration bonds and rate-sensitive equities, so today is a good day to know exactly where that exposure sits.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,722.60 | 0.6% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 280.18 | 1.15% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 721.25 | 1.27% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 372.28 | 1.21% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 77.60 | 0.52% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
2 p.m. ET today: the FOMC rate decision, followed by Chair Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The week also brings earnings from three Magnificent 7 companies and rate decisions from the Bank of Canada, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand around the Fed meeting.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
Before the decision lands, write one sentence per client on what a hawkish surprise would mean for their bond sleeve, then send it after the press conference rather than before. A calm explanation the same afternoon keeps the conversation on the plan instead of the headline, and clients remember who called first.