THE ONE THING
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.99% going into Wednesday’s Fed decision, and that level matters more for client portfolios than the rate call itself. Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, so equity leadership and rate risk are being repriced at the same time. The practical question for advisors is whether bond allocations are built for a 5% world or for a falling-rate world that has not arrived yet.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,676.77 | 0.7% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 276.99 | 0.45% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 712.20 | 1.11% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 367.82 | 0.33% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 77.20 | 0.19% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
Wednesday, October 28 brings the FOMC rate decision, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting the same day. Thursday adds the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the Bank of Japan decides on October 30. Expect the bond market, not the headline, to set the tone for the rest of the week.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
Before Wednesday’s Fed decision, identify which client accounts carry the most interest-rate sensitivity and draft a short note explaining how a move in long-term yields would affect them. Clients who hear from you before the volatility tend to stay calmer after it, and the note doubles as a reason to schedule a year-end review.