THE ONE THING
This week compresses three market-moving events into roughly 30 hours. The Fed announces its decision Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close that same afternoon, and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP lands alongside September PCE inflation Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the S&P 500 at 7,623.68 after Friday’s 0.52% slip and the VIX at 19.45, clients may read any single headline as a verdict, so this is a good week to set expectations before the volatility rather than explain it afterward.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | -0.52% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 275.75 | -0.33% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 704.40 | -0.01% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 366.61 | -0.65% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 77.05 | -0.06% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
Core PCE, Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus looks for core inflation of 3.1% over the past year, up from 3.0% in August, according to CNBC. It arrives the morning after the Fed meeting, so a hotter print could shift December rate expectations even if Wednesday’s decision is a widely expected hold, per U.S. Bank. For growth context, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated third-quarter growth at 3.5% as of October 20 versus 2.2% in the second quarter, per Yardeni QuickTakes.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
Send clients a short note today, before Wednesday, that names the three events on the calendar and explains how their allocation is built to absorb a surprise in either direction. A proactive two-paragraph message during a quiet Monday tends to land better than a reactive call after a volatile Thursday, and it gives you a natural reason to follow up once the GDP and PCE numbers are out.