THE ONE THING
The tape is quiet ahead of the print: the S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45, up 0.19%, with the 10-year easing to 5.24% after its run to 5.29%. Small caps led the session, IWM up 0.41% to 279.02, while the VIX slipped to 16.02. Yesterday’s rally came with the rate relief, which is exactly the pattern to watch once the jobs data lands.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | 0.19% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 279.02 | 0.41% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 742.03 | 0.31% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 382.76 | 0.5% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 76.90 | -0.4% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
September payrolls release at 8:30 AM ET this morning. Expectations center around 100,000 added jobs per Reuters, after ADP’s 90,000 private payroll beat earlier this week and August’s 162,000. Watch the 10-year at 5.24% for the reaction, not the headline alone.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
Client conversations today will start with the jobs number. Have the two-sentence version ready either way: what a miss means for the rate path, and what a beat means for the Fed’s next meeting. Being first with a calm read beats being precise an hour late.