THE ONE THING
October opens with the S&P 500 at 7,651.54, down 0.25% on the session, and the 10-year yield at 5.29%, the highest close of this move. Small caps lagged again with IWM down 0.40% while QQQ added 0.25%, and gold pulled back 0.54% after its run. The pattern of the third quarter is carrying straight into the fourth: the long end sets the tone.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,651.54 | -0.25% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 277.89 | -0.4% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 739.77 | 0.25% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 380.84 | -0.54% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 77.21 | -0.19% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
September payrolls land Friday, October 2 at 8:30 AM ET per the BLS release calendar. With the 10-year at 5.29%, a hot print lands directly on the term premium.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
Q4 starts today. Year-end client conversations begin now, not in December: rebalancing bands, tax-loss harvesting windows, and required minimum distribution deadlines are all easier to action in October. The 5.29% 10-year also gives fixed income conversations real material for the first time in years.