THE ONE THING
Watch the long end, not the next Fed meeting. The September hike is done and was well telegraphed; what moves client portfolios from here is whether long yields keep backing up toward levels that historically pull money away from equities. When the ten-year starts competing seriously with dividend and covered-call income, allocation conversations change quickly.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | – | -% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | – | -% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | – | -% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | – | -% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | – | -% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
The next big number is the policy path itself. Officials’ September projections point to one more hike before year-end, per CNBC’s coverage of the decision, so the market’s running vote on whether it happens is worth tracking in short-rate expectations. Anchor income conversations to that path rather than to any single meeting.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
When yields move this fast, rebalancing conversations get easier. Clients holding concentrated equity gains after the September run have a tax-aware opportunity to trim into strength and lock in income at yields that barely existed two years ago. Frame it as harvesting volatility, not calling a top.