THE ONE THING
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41 with the VIX at 16.41, up from 14.89 a week earlier, and the move in volatility deserves more attention than the move in the index. This week delivers the September PCE report on Wednesday and the September jobs report on Friday, so positioning into the data matters more than the headline level. A market that grinds higher while the cost of insurance quietly rises is not the same as a market without risk.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | 1.21% vs prior close |
| Russell 2000 | 281.97 | -0.75% vs prior close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 744.50 | 3.3% vs prior close |
| Gold (GLD) | 393.41 | -1.93% vs prior close |
| High Yield (HYG) | 77.86 | -0.85% vs prior close |
NEXT BIG NUMBER
Friday’s September jobs report is the number to watch. August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment at 4.1%, and the Fed left its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% after its September meeting. Wednesday’s PCE print lands first, with core inflation running at 3.3% year over year against the Fed’s 2% target, so the inflation data frames how the market reads the labor data two days later.
ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY
The third quarter ends Wednesday. Run rebalancing drift checks on client portfolios now rather than waiting for quarter-end statements, and flag any allocation that has drifted meaningfully from target for a proactive client conversation this week.