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THE LEAD-LAG ADVISOR BRIEF
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WEEK AHEAD • AUG 10–14
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MON
—
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TUE
CPI Report
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WED
—
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THU
Jobless Claims
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FRI
UMich Sentiment
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NEXT BIG NUMBER
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Later this month
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New York Fed’s monthly survey of manufacturers. Released the second week of each month, it is one of the first regional manufacturing gauges and a leading indicator for the national ISM. New orders and shipments are the subcomponents to watch.
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ADVISOR TIP OF THE DAY • CE CREDITS
The average advisor needs 30 CE hours per licensing cycle. Instead of taking them in a rush before deadline, map one CE credit per month to a topic relevant to your niche. An advisor serving retirees who earns a Social Security optimization CE credit in October can immediately apply it in Q4 review meetings. Relevant CE becomes billable knowledge, not a compliance checkbox.
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JOB AID FOR YOUR NEXT CLIENT MEETING
The 5-Question Concentration Risk Conversation
For clients with 20%+ in a single stock, sector, or employer position — a 5-question script that goes from framing the exposure to setting a diversification trigger, without leading with the tax bill.
Download the guide (PDF)
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REGULATORY RADAR
The SEC has finalized SAB 122, allowing qualified custodians to hold digital assets without balance sheet treatment under specific conditions. If clients are asking about crypto allocation, the custody landscape just became clearer.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT • FRIDAY CLOSE
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THE NUMBER
$2.2T
Private equity dry powder — near-record levels despite a pullback from 2023 peaks
That capital needs to be deployed. Per S&P Global Market Intelligence, PE dry powder has receded from its all-time high but remains substantial. Expect M&A activity to accelerate in H2 2026, which historically lifts mid-cap and small-cap valuations where most targets sit.
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YTD ASSET CLASS TRACKER
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US EQUITIES
+13.75%
SPY
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BONDS
-0.32%
AGG
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GOLD
+1.07%
GLD
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INT’L
+13.07%
EFA
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CASH
+2.12%
BIL
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EARNINGS ON DECK
Tesla (TSLA), Verizon (VZ), 3M (MMM)
TSLA delivery numbers and margin trends. VZ dividend sustainability (~6% yield). 3M litigation reserves and industrial demand.
Tesla dominates client conversations. Have an informed view ready even if you don’t hold it — clients will ask.
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ONE CHART
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WHAT YOUR CLIENTS WILL ASK ABOUT
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1
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“Should we be worried about this pullback?”
The S&P 500 closed at 7,753.11 (-0.06%). Pullbacks of 5-10% happen roughly 3 times per year historically. Unless your client’s time horizon changed overnight, the plan hasn’t changed. Use this as a chance to tax-loss harvest where appropriate.
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2
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“Why is oil surging? Does it affect my portfolio?”
Crude oil moved +2.13% to $83.88. Energy exposure matters — check if clients hold XLE, energy MLPs, or oil-linked commodities. For most diversified portfolios, the bigger impact is on inflation expectations and consumer sentiment.
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3
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“Should I pay off my mortgage or invest?”
With the 10-year at 4.70%, the math depends on the client’s rate. Below 4%? Invest the difference. Above 6%? Paydown wins on a risk-adjusted basis. Between 4-6% is the gray zone — optimize for the client’s sleep quality, not just the spreadsheet.
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ADVISOR STAT OF THE DAY
91%
of investors who have a written financial plan say they feel confident about reaching their goals, compared to 52% of those without one.
Charles Schwab, Modern Wealth Survey
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ETF FLOW OF THE DAY
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Real estate ETFs (VNQ, XLRE, IYR) saw $920M in outflows as commercial real estate concerns resurfaced. Data center REITs were the sole bright spot within the sector.
Office vacancy rates continue to pressure traditional REITs. Data center and cell tower REITs are where institutional money is flowing — consider targeted exposure over broad REIT allocations.
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WHAT SMART MONEY IS DOING
The restructured UBS Global Wealth Management entity (post-Credit Suisse acquisition) is actively building US commercial real estate positions at distressed valuations. Focus: prime office and multifamily assets in gateway cities.
UBS Investor Day Presentation, 2026
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THIS WEEK IN ADVISOR MOVES
Wirehouse-to-RIA Breakaway Pace Accelerates in Q1 2026
Industry trackers report continued acceleration in wirehouse departures during Q1 2026. Multi-billion dollar teams are increasingly choosing the independent channel, citing greater control over investment selection, fee transparency, and technology flexibility as primary motivators. The breakaway trend has become structural, not cyclical.
AdvisorHub Advisor Movement Database, Q1 2026
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MODEL PORTFOLIO WATCH WEEKLY • WEDNESDAYS
Updated Every Wednesday
Model portfolio allocation changes are published each Wednesday.
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SECTOR SNAPSHOT
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TECH
+8.90%
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ENERGY
+4.53%
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FINANCIALS
+0.36%
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UTILITIES
-5.25%
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CLIENT CONVERSATION STARTER
Every client thinks about it but few ask. Use the question as a stress-test opportunity: show them their portfolio’s projected drawdown, recovery timeline, and income continuity. The advisor who models the worst case earns the most trust.
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CLIENT QUESTION OF THE WEEK FROM THE ADVISOR COMMUNITY
“”I’ve been hearing about private credit — is it right for me?””
Private credit has attracted over $1.5T in assets globally, offering yield premiums over public bonds in exchange for illiquidity. It’s appropriate for clients with: (1) a long time horizon (5+ years), (2) no need for near-term liquidity, and (3) taxable or tax-deferred accounts where the higher yield isn’t immediately taxable. The key risk: private credit is not marked to market daily, so volatility feels low — but credit losses in a default cycle can be significant. It’s a return-enhancer for the right client, not a bond replacement.
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FROM THE BLOG
How to ensure AI search engines like ChatGPT and Perplexity cite you when prospects ask about financial advice.
Read More →
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THIS WEEK’S LEAD-LAG RESEARCH
Why it matters: How to ensure AI search engines like ChatGPT and Perplexity cite you when prospects ask about financial advice.
Bottom line: Worth the 5-minute read before your next client conversation.
Read the full piece →
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THIS WEEK ON LEAD-LAG LIVE
Lead-Lag Live • Subscribe on YouTube
Why it matters: Direct, unfiltered conversations with the people running money and shaping policy.
Bottom line: Subscribe so you don’t miss the next live recording.
Watch the episode →
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“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
— Mike Tyson
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FREE FOR ADVISORS IN OUR NETWORK
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Advisors in our network get complimentary access to white-labeled market commentary, social media management, website development, cold email campaigns, video editing, SEO, CE credit webinars, and more — all at no cost. The only ask: take occasional intro calls with fund sponsors.
Market Commentary
Social Media
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15 minutes with our team • No obligation
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What’s the biggest question your clients are asking this week?
Reply & Tell Us
Your replies shape tomorrow’s edition.
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The Lead-Lag Advisor Brief is a free daily market briefing for financial advisors from Lead-Lag Media.
Created by Michael A. Gayed, CFA • michaelgayed@leadlagmedia.com
Important Disclosures
This newsletter is published by Lead-Lag Media, LLC and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial product. All opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any affiliated entity.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA is the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report and may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. Any references to specific securities, ETFs, or investment products are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered endorsements. ETF Spotlight placements are paid sponsorships and are clearly labeled as such.
Market data is sourced from public data providers and is presented as of the prior trading day’s close. While we strive for accuracy, Lead-Lag Media makes no warranty regarding the completeness or reliability of the data presented. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Financial advisors should perform their own due diligence and consider their clients’ individual circumstances before acting on any information contained in this publication. Lead-Lag Media is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner.
© 2026 Lead-Lag Media, LLC. All rights reserved.
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